This presentation
has two parts. The first part identifies verifiable
and unverifiable risks in certain given scenarios.
The second part of this paper deals with CAPM
calculation with the given figures and the last
part explains the drawbacks and advantages of
using the CAPM.
Analysis
Each of the four different situations and scenarios
will be analyzed as to the diversification or
otherwise of the risk inherent to the scenario.
1.0 Fraudulent accounting practices
Fraudulent accounting practices would entail
a very bad and hostile media. This is specially
so after the scams involving WorldCom, Enron and
Xerox Corporation. Investigative journalists (including
those in The New York Times) have even discovered
such corporate wrongdoings in businesses that
are linked to President Bush and Vice-President
Dick Cheney. Therefore the issue has been brought
into sharp focus and a business indulging in such
a practice is sure to be censured by the public,
media and also grilled by the official agencies.
Insider trading, capitalizing operating expenditure,
book fictitious (unaccrued) revenue, to jack up
stock prices and unload personal holdings before
the discovery are now well known tricks. And what
of the risk diversification? To be sure once the
erring business is under the official microscopic
examination the escape route is almost cut off.
It has to bear the consequences in the manner
prescribed by the law. Of course a team of highly
paid high-profile lawyers can go a long way in
diverting the focus and doing a fine damage control
job. But accounting manipulations leave a trail
and can be uncovered even when camouflaged. It
would appear that under this given situation the
degree of risk diversification is limited.
The above applies to the business corporation
itself. The official would at worse resign and
be given another assignment elsewhere by the vested
interests.
(The Hindu Business Line : Corporate scams in
US: Roots 2004)
2.0 A major terrorist attack occurs in the U.S.
again.
The September 11 attacks were sudden and unprecedented.
If American is to face another such eventuality
it is better prepared today. Besides the degree
of preparedness the rescue and relief operations
would have gained similar improvements.
It is entirely possible to plan new growth in
widely separate geographical areas so as to diversify
the risk. This is possible even in case of most
of the existing business though relocation may
add costs dimension at least in the short run.
If enough business undertake relocations then
the chances for the businesses to find convenient
locations with suitable facilities would become
easier.
3.0 A large increase in the price of oil
Rise in the price of oil sends shudders down
the spine of business managers. The alternative
fuels like the renewable ethanol; hydrogen or
cold fusion are still in the laboratories and
quite some time away from being brought into commercial
use. The risk cannot be diversified in the choice
of fuel. Contracts in the futures market for oil
presents one such cushion against sudden and very
high hikes in the price of oil. In this case however
the risk is extra cost in case there is no major
price increase. It is not possible to synchronize
production schedules in line with periods when
oil is cheap and plentiful. The disruptions in
production planning and scheduling and inventory
management would present insurmountable problems.
4.0 The CEO of a major corporation is involved
in a sex scandal
This is the easiest situation to get out of and
diversify the risk. A well choreographed spin-doctoring
campaign and right media contacts will confuse
the issue and there is a chance of the damage
control exercises to finish off the job. The CEO
can be sent on a furlough ad told to lie low till
the storm is blown off. Or if the board is sincere
then the CEO can be sent packing and a person
of better repute brought in.
a. Find the Expected Return on the Market Portfolio
given that the Expected Return on Asset I is 7%,
the Risk-Free Rate is 2.5%, and the Beta for Asset
I is 1.5.
The formula to be applied is as follows:
Ks = Krf + B (Km – Krf)
• Ks = The Required Rate of Return, (or
just the rate of return).
• Krf = The Risk Free Rate (the rate of
return on a "risk free investment",
like U.S. Government Treasury Bonds
• B = Beta
• Km = The expected return on the overall
stock market. (You have to guess what rate of
return you think the overall stock market will
produce.)
(CAPM 2004)
KS = 2.5+1.5(7%-2.5)
= 2.5+1.5(4.5)
= 2.5+ 6.75
= 9.25
b. Find the Risk-Free Rate given that the Expected
Return on Asset i is 10%, the Expected Return
on the Market Portfolio is 5%, and the Beta for
Asset i is 1.5.
KS = 1.5(5)
= 7.5
c. What will happen to the Beta of a diversified
stock portfolio as more stocks are added to it?
There is an inverse relationship between diversification
of the portfolio and the element of risk. Therefore
if more stocks are added to the portfolio it is
more likely for the element of risk to go down.
The beta’s risk compared to the overall
market’s risk is likely to go down.
CAPM: Advantages and drawbacks
Advantage is that CAPM links the required return
directly to risk. It is of particular use when
a business is looking to add to its activities
and the new activity has a different risk than
the business’ existing activities. The risk
of the firm will thus change and therefore equity
cost of capital will be different in future from
what it is at present.
The major drawback is that the beta is based
on past performance and the future may not be
like the past. Another problem is finding a quoted
firm that has single activity. Another drawback
is the gearing differences.
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