In order to meet
the energy requirement for the next 100 years,
the United States will have to consider following:
Tackling transportation. Despite the obstacles,
the U.S. could make rapid headway by plugging
holes in its leakiest energy-using sectors. Factories,
homes and appliances could all be made more energy-efficient,
but the biggest candidate for improvement is transportation,
which accounts for almost two thirds of all U.S.
oil consumption and which now uses 20 percent
more oil than it did in 1973. Jet-fuel consumption
has skyrocketed, rising 28 percent over the past
five years to 1.3 million barrels a day. Meanwhile,
America's 184 million cars, trucks, buses and
other vehicles now swallow half the 17 million
barrels of oil that the nation consumes daily.
Much of the impetus behind this growth has been
cheap gasoline, priced lower in real terms until
recently than at any other time in the past 50
years. One key to lowering vehicle-fuel consumption
is thus raising the price of gas. The Gulf conflict
may have accomplished that for now, but another
option is to hike federal motor-fuel vehicle taxes,
now at 9.1 cents per gallon of gas and essentially
unchanged since the early 1980s. An increase of
12 cents a gallon would raise about $12 billion
a year in new revenues, bringing the gas taxes
a bit closer to the levels of industrialized nations
such as Japan, where the tax is equivalent to
$1.62 a gallon. More important, a tax hike would
function as a price mechanism to spur consumers
to conserve - taking more mass transit or even
following the DOE's advice to put enough air in
their tires.
Stanching further energy losses could require
making cars more fuel efficient and battling Americans'
born-again love of gas guzzlers. Thanks to lighter
materials and massive re-engineering, the fuel
efficiency of the average 1989-model car was almost
double that of the average 1974 model: 28.3 miles
per gallon vs. 14.2. But ''by far the biggest
source of oil available to the U.S. is the potential
for higher gas mileage in our motor vehicles,''
contends Bill Magavern of the U.S. Public Interest
Research Group. Senator Richard Bryan, Democrat
of Nevada, has proposed raising the average fuel
efficiency for new cars to 40 miles per gallon
by the year 2000; proponents claim the measure
would lower oil consumption by 2.8 million barrels
a day. Yet automakers have long argued that consumers
would balk at paying sharply higher prices for
re-engineered cars. One alternative might be slapping
special taxes on cars with low fuel efficiency,
using the proceeds to pay rebates to shoppers
who purchased cars that ran at least 40 miles
to the gallon.
Search for new oil reserves. Roughly 75 percent
of the world's proven oil reserves lie in OPEC
nations, while the U.S., the most heavily drilled
country in the world, has only 4 percent. And
America's aging oil fields are slowly petering
out; domestic U.S. oil production has declined
from a high of about 9.7 million barrels a day
in 1970 to about 7.7 million barrels today. Even
production on Alaska's North Slope near famed
Prudhoe Bay - the boon that helped rescue America
from its last energy crisis - is waning. Oil producers
insist that the United States now has no choice
but to launch exploratory drilling in places thought
to harbor oil. At the top of their list are areas
off the coasts of California, Washington and Oregon,
and in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, or
ANWR (pronounced ''Anwar''), about 60 miles east
of Prudhoe Bay where an estimated 3.2 billion
barrels of oil might be found.
The thirst for reserves could now prompt the
biggest clash in years between Big Oil's backers
and the growing environmental movement, which
opposes what it views as an effort to ''Drain
America First.'' Even the White House might shift
gears: Only two months ago, for example, George
Bush bowed to election-year pressures in California
and Florida and announced a ban on oil drilling
along much of the U.S. coast. The administration
may also mount a new push for drilling at ANWR,
a proposal shelved after last year's oil spill
by the Exxon Valdez.
Even if new reserves are found, they'll be no
quick fix: It could take up to a decade to develop
production at ANWR. In the meantime, the administration
will push for expanded tax incentives to encourage
independent oil drillers, as well as settlement
of disputes impeding planned offshore production.
Chevron Corporation and state and local officials
in California have locked horns over the company's
bid to transfer oil by tanker - instead of by
more costly and environmentally safe pipeline
- from the new Point Arguello oil field off the
coast of Santa Barbara. DOE Secretary James Watkins
has sent emissaries to resolve the dispute, arguing
that production from Point Arguello could increase
U.S. oil supplies by up to 75,000 barrels a day.
Switch to natural gas. Gasoline can be made from
coal and oil squeezed from shale, but oil's price
would have to top $40 to $60 a barrel to make
the effort worthwhile. A better alternative may
be to expand use of natural gas, a relatively
clean fuel that can be substituted for oil in
both transportation and stationary use. Americans
will use 18.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas
this year, 93 percent of it from the U.S. and
most of the rest from Canada.
If trucks or buses were equipped with high-pressure
tanks like the cylinders used by scuba divers,
many could be run on natural gas. The United Parcel
Service is one of several companies now converting
a portion of their truck fleets to the fuel -
and within five years, the American Gas Association
estimates, natural-gas use could displace 1.3
million barrels of oil a day. To speed up conversion,
the Bush administration has called for swifter
regulatory approval of proposals to build new
gas pipelines. And the gas industry is backing
provisions in Clean Air Act amendments now before
Congress to promote the switch from imported oil
to natural gas.
Electric cars and nukes. Running cars on liquid-alcohol
fuels such as methanol, made from natural gas,
or ethanol, made from corn, is another alternative
- though widespread use could quickly gobble up
the nation's corn crop and all domestic supplies
of natural gas. Using electricity to fuel cars
might make more sense, since vehicle batteries
could be charged at night when power plants have
surplus capacity. General Motors and Chrysler
are at work on electric cars and vans with a range
of about 120 miles, making them contenders for
many commercial uses and commuting to work. GM
will produce the first modern U.S.-made electric
van later this month; electric cars could be on
the market by the mid-1990s, though expensive
batteries could make them pricey.
But greater use of electricity would be no panacea.
The nation already uses 50 percent more electricity
than it did in 1973 - and with electric use growing
rapidly, areas along the Eastern seaboard and
Florida are now contending with power shortages.
To meet the growing need, the nation's electric
power grid will have to be enlarged by one third
to one half by the year 2000, at a cost of as
much as $800 billion.
These giant new power plants will have to be
fired by coal or nuclear power - and because the
clean-air amendments will make it harder and more
expensive to burn coal, the atom may soon have
the competitive edge. As it stands, nuclear energy
provides only about 7 percent of U.S. energy needs,
compared with 30 percent in France and 32 percent
in Sweden. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is
now seeking ways to cut the time it takes to license
U.S. nuclear power plants, in part because related
public hearings and lawsuits now stretch out plant
development to as much as 11 years. Yet public
fears of accidents and worries about nuclear-waste
disposal seem certain to hem in new nukes.
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