This presentation is about a hypothetical crisis situation that the U.S. faces in the year 2012. The scenario that unfolds is about (a) Iran’s claim that it has now successfully tested medium range missile and that it also has the capability to convert these missile into long-rage missiles which can carry nuclear warheads and (b) China’s ultimatum to Taiwan…. depose your nationalist president or face immediate invasion. The Chinese have mobilized their troops and started moving them to forward positions. This paper details how a political appointee with the incoming presidential administration would react to this. His assignment is to (1) craft an immediate response to these crises that maintains credibility of existing commitments; and 2) draw up a new national security strategy that reflects the changed international environment.

Analysis

The President of the United States of America has the responsibility to defend the free world’s integrity and sovereignty against any attack from any hostile nation or nations.
This responsibility stems from causative factors that are rooted in self-interest s as well as on the disturbance of military power equilibrium. It is in the U.S. interests that the regime in Iran is kept from possessing nuclear warheads and the delivery system for the same.

The President must therefore make known the response from the U.S. on these developments. It is of vital importance that the U.S. reiterates its commitments to the safeguarding of the independence of Iran’s neighbors and to keep open the supply routes of oil from the Middle East to Europe and the United States. It is of equal importance that freedom of Taiwan is preserved. These issues are of core importance to the U.S. and any incumbent in the White House will adopt a bold policy.
Therefore the U.S. response has to be very carefully tailored to reflect clear-cut intention to deter any aggression by using its full military might if either Iran shows any belligerence or China flexes its military muscle. Iran’s testing, by itself, has not demonstrated any nefarious designs over its neighbor (Iraq. Turkey or the Gulf states) but Iran has shown to be quite unstable and unpredictable in its policies. It is not a responsible state ad cannot be trusted with keeping a large nuclear arsenal. In the other scenario the Chinese may be just calling a bluff in order to force a long term change in U.S. stance on trying to maintain its troops in Taiwan. However the U.S. has to take into account all eventualities and cannot afford to leave anything to chance or speculation. Therefore the response to both Iran and China has to be sufficiently straightforward to send a clear message that the United States means business and will take necessary measures from a position of strength.

The response to be crafted would take the following form:
Ladies and gentlemen of the media, On behalf of the President of the United States I welcome you to this session. President’s speech would be followed by a question and answer session. Ladies and gentlemen… the President of the United States…clapping

Ladies and gentlemen,
You all know about the grave situation that has developed over the last couple of weeks. I am referring specifically to two events. First of these is the declaration made by Iran that it has successfully launched its latest missile which is a medium range missile but which can readily be modified to turn it into a long-range missile. These missiles have the capability of delivering nuclear warheads. The second crisis is the situation created by the People’s Republic of China, which has threatened its smaller neighbor, Taiwan of military action and take-over. These threats have assumed alarming proportions. We have been proactive and we have been using diplomatic means to diffuse the crises and resolve the issues. Unfortunately both Iran and china have not responded with the desired restraint. Instead of reciprocating these countries have hardened their positions and have assumed rigid, hostile and provocative postures.

The situation now is that the world peace is at stake. The global security and stability are under threat. Having seen our diplomatic overtures spurned we are left with no choice but to announce our decision to challenge these aggressive designs with full force of the United States’ military power.
Let me tell those in power in Teheran and Beijing that U.S. will not sit idle and watch their provocations as a spectator. We will, with our allies, counter the provocations and aggressions with full might.

To the Iranian government my clear message is to disarm its missile system or face the consequences. We have decided to move the United Nation’s Security Council and will demand a full range of economic sanction on Iran. Simultaneously I have ordered the seventh fleet to move closer to the Persian Gulf and cordon and cut off all the supply sources to the Iran’s military.
Iran’s nuclear arsenal represents a clear threat to the peace in the area and also has worldwide implications. This capability must be taken away. We still ask that Iran does this on its own under international supervision. If Iran does not do this itself then it risks potential destruction if the international community is to engage in disarming it of the offensive nuclear warheads and delivery system. (World Fact Book: Iran 2004)
To the government of the People’s Republic of China my message is unequivocal and unambiguous. Hands off Taiwan! The United States is full determined and equipped to deter any aggression against Taiwan. We have a defense pact with Taiwan and we are fully prepared to honor that. So let not the Chinese be under no doubt about our commitments and our determination. We will defend the territorial integrity of Taiwan.
My message to both Iran and China is to show restraint and not flex their military muscle by underestimating the U.S. has military power and its resolve to safeguard the interests of a free world.
As I speak to you our rapid deployment forces have already been mobilized and the entire armed forces have been put on high alert. We have full faith in the fighting abilities of our men. Our military capabilities are unmatched. Above all our cause is just and moral.

Ladies and gentlemen I wish to assure you that the United States would do all it can, and more, to ward off this threat by peaceful means but will not shy away from its responsibilities if the use of force becomes necessary.
Part 2 U.S. Strategy under the newly emerging scenario
Happily the U.S. had realized its responsibilities during peacetime to keep itself prepared for all theoretical eventualities. The think tank and the units within the armed forces have regular sessions for simulating war games strategies. Therefore it is not that the U.S. will have to start drawing up its strategy now. Only slight modifications would be required as per the actual ground situation.
The new goals of the United States:
Iran Front
(1) To denuclearise the Persian Gulf. For this the United States, together with its NATO allies, use the United Nations platform to put economic sanctions and also deploy its naval power to cut off all military supplies into Iran.
(2)The United States needs to keep the shipping lines protected to ensure uninterrupted the flow of Middle East oil to Europe and the United States itself.
For this the United States will fly in additional troops to Oman, Jordan and Bahrain. It will also move in additional squadrons of fighter/bomber aircrafts positioned at forward bases. The reconnaissance aircraft (both land and sea) will also be beefed up.

The United States will also move two aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf straits and a flotilla of supporting naval vessels to carry out the blockade.

China Front
The goal here is to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan.
For this the U.S. will move an additional one hundred thousand troops in Taiwan. It will keep another 50,000 men in standby position. It will add to the considerable military firepower by moving in tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and anti-tank missile launchers. (World Fact Book: United States 2004)
The U.S. will move nuclear-armed submarines off the coast to china. These submarines will be escorted by the full complement of destroyers and frigates. Airpower will be crucial in this theatre and the U.S. will add to the existing number of fighter, bomber and reconnaissance aircrafts there. (World Fact Book: United States 2004)

The United States will make it central to its overall strategy massive use of its remote controlled firepower. The use of cruise missile and smart bombs will be more than ever before. The whole purpose is to limit and minimize the casualties of U.S. troops. The United States will make full use of global positioning system (GPS). The will allow use of a space-based, highly accurate navigation system.
These benefits accrue at the
• Strategic level of war, at which the perimeters and constraints on the conduct of war are delineated
• Operational level of war, when the war is designed and planned to optimally achieve desired ends within the constraints defined at the strategic level; and,
• Tactical level of war, when the military forces are deployed and employed in the best manner for the achievement of an element of the operational design or plan. (Contributions of the Global Positioning System 2004)

The United States is completing its hypersonic aircraft program (called project FALCON), which can cover distance from Washington to Tokyo in two hours. This will eliminate the need to use air bases located in countries, which may take time to allow their use. This was experienced in the attack on Iraq. However it is not complete but the glider is available for use. This can cover a distance of 4,800 kilometers (3,000 miles) at hypersonic speeds and deliver munitions of up to 450 kilograms. The glider will be propelled to its target by a simple launch vehicle. (US launches effort to develop hypersonic strike capability 2004)