Considering the manner in
which an economy functions, a country wherever
it is located has to comply wit international
standards and expectations. This refers to all
countries whether they are super-powers or under-developed
countries, as it is rare when poorer countries
are made exceptions. However, there are cases
where strategies have to be applied in order to
relieve countries of incurred debt. Otherwise,
it would certainly be a difficult task for their
people to live above the poverty line. Nevertheless,
there are many that suffer in various countries
(Illustration 1). Particularly speaking of poverty,
it must be asserted that countries of the Sub
Saharan region are said to be troubled significantly
because of economic strife.
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In view of the debt that the region has, it is understandable that a region will not be able to progress far enough economically speaking; growth in this regard will be stunted because of the debt the country has. This is because of the fact that among other factors, fear also prevails, and investors are afraid to venture out and invest their valuable resources in such regions. Generally speaking, if debts were to be lowered, and investors assured of the safety of their investments, investor confidence would return and stimulate growth. With this understanding, it may be asserted that investigation into the Sub-Saharan region has been carried out. According to investigations carried out there, the
Growth prospects of the region may be ascertained. These have been done so under a specific plan that would help one to estimate the prospects of the region.
In the form of packages for debt-relief, researchers
have implemented their plans. The plans implemented
consisted of “debt reduction packages
of 5%, l0%, 20% and 50%” (lyoha, 1999).
By using such a system of measure, it has been
convenient in recording the corresponding results
in investment and growth thereafter. The regular
increase in the debt-relief observed here makes
observation and recording simpler than what it
might be when using other systems of measure.
As a base for understanding the growth triggered
by the debt-reduction, it is worth considering
that “a 20% debt stock reduction would,
on average, have increased investment by 18% and
increased GDP growth by 1% during the 1987-1994
period”(lyoha, 1999). Given that the
region suffered tremendously during the 1980s,
it can be said that they would have to struggle
to get out of their situation. “Sub-Saharan
Africa, per capita income fell to an average annual
rate of 2.2%; Per capita private consumption declined
fell by 14.8%” (Observe Illustration
2 and 3) (lyoha, 1999). In view of these conditions,
the World Bank and the IMF both recommended structural
adjustment programs. Some in the region did not
comply with this. Those that did failed to ameliorate
their conditions, largely speaking. Hence, the
signs of improvement were slim. In view of this,
it also must be asserted that the condition was
severe enough to carry on into the 1990s, thus
reinforcing fear in investors. Certainly, this
was a real fear because of the fact that structural
adjustment had not done much good even when it
was accepted and implemented. This may be because
of the manner in which it was implemented. However,
in relation to the reduction of debt in the Sub-Saharan
region, it must be said that if debt were to be
reduced, growth would be directly impacted. According
to studies, it is said that 50% debt stock reduction
would have raised per capita gross domestic investment
by over 40%, and increased GDP growth by over
3%, on average, during the 1987-1994 period. At
this point, it must be asserted that Nigeria by
Chhibber and Pahwa (1994) and by Iyoha (1997)
mimic this argument. Judging by studies carried
out in the Sub-Saharan region, it can be said
that extremely high stock of external debt stunts
investment and reduces economic growth. As a result,
heavily indebted places such as those in the Sub-Saharan
region should develop better strategies in order
to ameliorate their situation. Keeping in mind
that what the IMF and World Bank have recommended
through the years has not worked, it must be asserted
that traditional debt relief mechanisms are still
held fast to. The strategies currently employed
include “debt restructuring, debt rescheduling,
reduced debt servicing, debt buy-backs, interest
rate options, etc.” (lyoha, 1999) It
has been ascertained that these have helped to
a significant extent in lessening “the
debt stock” (Ogbe, 1992).
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In summary, one needs to go over what a Sub-Saharan country’s chances are according to its economic position. As mentioned earlier, and as an example, “a 20% debt stock reduction would, on average, have increased investment by 18%” (lyoha, 1999). This more specifically refers to 1987-1994 period. In addition to this, “Debt forgiveness” has the ability to stimulate investment recovery and economic growth. Also, extremely high stock of external debt reduces investment (Illustration 4 is worth noting). Hence, the traditional means in place could be sustained or ameliorated in some way to benefit the process. Having asserted this, it must be asserted that better strategies could be devised in order to improve economic growth in the region.
Finally, regarding the manner in which the economic strategies are operating in the Sub-Saharan region, it must be asserted that the growth in this region is slow. However, as long as a steady flow is maintained, the chances of the economy improving are relatively high. However, in the light of political problems, this could also be mitigated considerably. In addition to the political condition, there is also need to take into consideration the social state of affairs. Since, many countries in the region are not well-off, it might be asserted that social problems would exist, if not rampant (Illustration 1). This kind of situation currently prevailing in most of the countries in the region makes it difficult for growth to improve. Hence, the economy is most likely to struggle and gain momentum at a snails pace. |