QUESTION 1:"If
markets are informationally efficient then financial
statement analysis is a waste of time.”
Discuss this view in the light of theories and
evidence of which you are aware concerning the
informational efficiency of capital markets.
Introduction
Capital markets are governed by fair prices and
efficiency. Investors want to make sure that they
are paying fair prices for the securities they
purchase (Head 2003). Fair prices mean the security
prices that are acceptable and agreed upon by
everyone in the market. Efficiency on the other
hand means the capital market's ability "to
process relevant information as quickly and accurately"
as possible. Information could pertain to the
security prices, the company's financial statements,
and the interest rates or sales information of
the company. When we refer to efficient market
we are referring to how the market provides accurate
information at a low cost and how it affects fair
prices (Head 2003).
Discussion
Market efficiency in the above context refers
to the pricing efficiency. When capital markets
exhibit pricing efficiency, the security price
movements whether denoting abnormal gains or different
kinds of information must be accurate for the
investor to make effective decision pertaining
to the share prices. Inefficiency in such a market
would lead to wrong decisions and hence resulting
in financial losses. As far as the statement "If
markets are informationally efficient then financial
statement analysis are a waste of time" is
concerned, this statement is untrue. This is because
much of the information comes from the company
itself such as sales figures, income, assets and
shareholder's equity. As the prices in the market
changes, the financial status of the company changes
accordingly. For this reason even if the fair
prices prevalent in the market are efficient,
the internal information must be attained by the
investors to calculate, evaluate, analyze and
make effective purchasing decisions. Hence, in
this context pricing efficiency is not enough
for financial statement analysis. One needs to
have internal information to be able to come to
the right conclusion.
Boot and Thakor (1997) in their study indicate
that informational efficiency of security prices
is the key to effective decision making. They
are of the opinion that the amount of information
revealed by the firm reflects the effectiveness
of operating decisions. The informational efficiency
of a firm therefore depends on the firm's operating
information as well as capital structure status.
The cost of disseminating information is born
by the firm's internal cash to be returned as
premium to the buyers for selling the information
to the traders. Empirical evidence also indicate
that the "firm's security returns is a sizable
component of its cost of capital" (qt. Chang
and Yu 2003). To resolve cost of capital, the
firm and the market rely on the fair prices to
adjust the liquidity within the cost of capital.
When buyers make decision as to the efficiency
of the market, they are thus on the lookout for
fair prices that separate/integrate the informational
efficiency price in the security prices. That
is to say, they gauge how high or how low is the
cost of the information for making effective purchasing
decisions.
Conclusion
From the above discussion, one can conclude that
informational efficiency is complementary to financial
analysis as it allows the investors to decide
whether to buy or sell the securities. This decision
is reliant on the informational efficiency on
the capital structure and the operating efficiency
within the firm. When we refer to the informational
efficiency therefore we are referring to the efficient
cost of information and how it affects the fair
prices prevalent in the market.
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